PR of CIA 08_28_06 E. China Sea oil.

this is my best explanation of why east china sea oil is key to deterring n. Korea from its nuclear ambitions. it depends on the theory that china is using n Korea as a pawn to project power across said sea and menace japan a little. as we know from the Venezuela example, china is very interested in oil. Koizumi has been visiting Yasukuni 'right regular,' and making them mad, so when the oil was found it became a way to get back at them politically. but n korea has been not so quietly noodling away at nuclear weaponry, and they are just as interested to shoot scuds at japan as whatevers at the US. enter the six party talks. what is china's incentive to actually deter n Korea? it's communist, so they don't ever expect said nukes will ever be aimed at THEM. if n. Korea manages to hit japan, so much the better. war always hits the US where it hurts... in the pocket book. so here's the solution: the carrot: if china can actually get n Korea to stop it, we advocate for china to 'get' east china sea oil (even though it is way outside their territorial waters by our calculations.) what does japan get out of it? they get to not be bombed with a n Korean nuke. the stick: if by some measurement china isn't doing enough to deter n Korea, the we throw all our diplomacy behind japan getting all that oil, and do what we can to queer relations between n Korea and its largest neighbor. if n Korea gets mad enough, they can take china's attention off Taiwan. you reckon some oil we don't even have claim to isn't worth tendering? l2r *****NOTE***** There is now (03/23/08) some speculation that Japan and China will resolve the issue of east China Sea oil before the Beijing Olympics in a single news article, despite refusing to set deadlines. If not, this may become a legal "dog and the bone" issue.